SARATOGA, N.Y. — Here's the thing about even-money favorites: the crowd is usually right, until it isn't.
On Saturday afternoon at Saratoga, the $500,000 Jim Dandy went exactly the way trainer Todd Pletcher had been insisting it would for eight weeks — except this time, Renegade actually got to prove it on the track. Under Irad Ortiz, Jr., the colt found clear sailing from the break, avoided the traffic trouble that plagued his Triple Crown campaign, and made the victory over Commandant look, in the words of the race's own coverage, 'rather easy.'
Commandant, the even-money favorite at post time, finished second. Silent Tactic came in for the show. Jose Ortiz and Chip Honcho finished fourth. Asked and Answered brought up the rear.
The payouts reflected just how tight the market was. Renegade returned $4.72 on a $2 win bet. Commandant paid $2.46 to place. Silent Tactic returned $2.74 to show. The exotics offered only moderate relief: a $1 exacta paid $4.72, and a $0.50 trifecta paid a flat $10.00.
For Pletcher, the win closes a chapter. Since the Belmont, the trainer had spent two months delivering what the source describes as 'pretty much constant explanations' to a press corps that kept revisiting Renegade's rough Triple Crown trips. Pletcher's consistent position — that Renegade ran heroically despite poor circumstances, finishing third in the Belmont — was always a harder sell than a clean victory. Saturday was the clean victory.
'It was a bad race for him, but not a bad race,' was how Pletcher framed the Belmont. The Jim Dandy is now the evidence file.
The Travers Stakes, the 'Midsummer Derby,' awaits at the end of August. Both Renegade and Commandant are expected to run. Pletcher has four weeks of works ahead, but the conditioning investment he made over the summer paid its first dividend today.
Voltage's read: Horse racing is one of the few remaining sports where the market — the tote board — prices information in real time, with real money, and no committee. The crowd still liked Commandant at even money. The crowd was wrong. Renegade retains the edge going into the Travers, the algorithm of the racetrack has been updated, and the next odds sheet will be more interesting for it. The demo, as they say, is not the product — but today's race was.
